Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -5.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.1 (+4.9) | 154.0 (-17.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.8 (+4.2) | 152.5 (-15.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -3.3 (+5.7) | 152.6 (-15.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.0 (+6.0) | 153.3 (-16.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#40) | 9.1 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#74) | 2.30 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#66) | 2.63 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#74) | 0.599 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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