Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -650 MIZ +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -11.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -12.2 (-13.2) | 151.5 (+13.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -12.7 (-13.7) | 152.8 (+12.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -11.7 (-12.7) | 152.5 (+12.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -10.6 (-11.6) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FLA 73 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#5) | 13.9 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#4) | 2.75 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.88 (#4) | 3.92 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#14) | 0.579 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 46.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 41.4% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 37.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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