Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -1200 MIZ +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -14.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -14.1 (-5.1) | 157.8 (-0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -12.6 (-3.6) | 159.0 (-2.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -13.3 (-4.3) | 156.1 (+0.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -13.6 (-4.6) | 157.9 (-0.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FLA 73 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#28) | 1.7 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#23) | -0.42 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#22) | -0.27 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#28) | 0.476 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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