Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -400 MIZ +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +14 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -6.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.2 (+4.8) | 162.3 (+13.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -10.6 (+3.4) | 166.2 (+9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -10.6 (+3.4) | 162.7 (+13.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.9 (+4.1) | 159.4 (+16.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FLA 73 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#4) | 17.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.45 (#2) | 3.13 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.75 (#2) | 3.97 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#4) | 0.586 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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