Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -205 BOIS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 217 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -1.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+76.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.3 (+0.7) | 138.8 (+78.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -2.2 (+0.8) | 136.6 (+80.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.8 (+1.2) | 137.6 (+79.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -2.4 (+0.6) | 139.0 (+78.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BOIS 86 – 77 SDSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | BOIS 62 – 52 SDSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDSU 64 – 47 BOIS |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SDSU 76 – 68 BOIS |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BOIS 79 – 77 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#69) | 11.6 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#83) | 2.51 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#69) | 3.00 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#81) | 0.647 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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