Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +205 LEM -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +26 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -7.4 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -6.0 (-20.0) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -7.9 (-18.1) | 145.1 (-3.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -6.9 (-19.1) | 148.3 (-6.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -6.6 (-19.4) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LEM 86 – 84 SFPA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 76 LEM |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SFPA 86 – 78 LEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LEM 74 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LEM 94 – 57 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -19.9 (#361) | -8.6 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.03 (#361) | -1.77 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.91 (#363) | -2.65 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#343) | 0.433 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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