Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +230 LEM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +16 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -3.2 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -2.7 (-13.3) | 136.1 (-4.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -4.1 (-11.9) | 136.1 (-4.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -3.5 (-12.5) | 136.7 (-4.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -2.7 (-13.3) | 136.1 (-4.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LEM 86 – 84 SFPA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LEM 84 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 76 LEM |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SFPA 86 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LEM 94 – 57 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#350) | -8.1 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#352) | -1.64 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#353) | -2.13 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#348) | 0.425 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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