Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -380 SFPA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +2 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -12.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -10.7 (-8.7) | 147.1 (+22.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -8.3 (-6.3) | 148.3 (+21.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -10.2 (-8.2) | 147.4 (+22.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -10.1 (-8.1) | 147.0 (+23.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | LEM 84 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 76 LEM |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SFPA 86 – 78 LEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LEM 74 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LEM 94 – 57 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#277) | -17.0 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#301) | -2.65 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#302) | -3.74 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#308) | 0.391 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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