Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -225 SFPA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +37 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -8.5 (+28.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -6.0 (+31.0) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -7.2 (+29.8) | 138.4 (+12.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -6.0 (+31.0) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -6.1 (+30.9) | 137.0 (+14.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LEM 86 – 84 SFPA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LEM 84 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 76 LEM |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SFPA 86 – 78 LEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LEM 74 – 58 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#305) | -13.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#316) | -2.29 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#310) | -3.29 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#312) | 0.381 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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