Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -130 LEM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -6.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -4.4 (+3.6) | 145.2 (+18.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -3.4 (+4.6) | 146.3 (+17.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.9 (+4.1) | 144.9 (+19.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -4.1 (+3.9) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LEM 86 – 84 SFPA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LEM 84 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SFPA 81 – 76 LEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LEM 74 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LEM 94 – 57 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-13 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#326) | -13.7 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#325) | -1.97 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#322) | -2.69 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#277) | 0.406 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.