Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB +110 AAMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +12 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -0.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -0.6 (+12.6) | 145.0 (+33.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -1.4 (+10.6) | 142.4 (+35.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -1.3 (+13.3) | 144.7 (+33.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -1.4 (+13.4) | 145.7 (+32.3) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | AAMU 82 – 70 UAPB |
| Feb 18, 2025 | AAMU 75 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AAMU 89 – 79 UAPB |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AAMU 63 – 62 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-14 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#333) | -8.1 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#249) | -0.56 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#267) | -0.75 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#152) | 0.463 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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