Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -180 UAPB +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -3.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -1.5 (+10.5) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -2.8 (+9.2) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -2.2 (+9.8) | 143.0 (+9.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -1.9 (+10.1) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UAPB 95 – 83 AAMU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | AAMU 75 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AAMU 89 – 79 UAPB |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AAMU 63 – 62 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#322) | -11.4 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#273) | -0.90 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#278) | -1.61 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#296) | 0.472 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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