Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +410 TXST -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -0.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.0 (-2.0) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.3 (-2.7) | 146.8 (+16.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.6 (-2.4) | 146.4 (+16.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.0 (-2.0) | 148.8 (+14.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TXST 67 – 54 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-10 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#344) | -9.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#360) | -0.78 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.47 (#359) | -1.20 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#360) | 0.430 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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