I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Sun Belt Conference · Fant-Ewing Coliseum · January 3, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread TXST -10.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money ULM +410 / TXST -550
Model Predictions
Spread Total ULM win
Actual TXST +5 163 Lost
Massey TXST -0.8 (-4.2)
Massey Totals 155.3 (+7.7)
Bradley-Terry 7%
Weighted B-T 3%
Efficiency Plus ML TXST -2.3 (-2.7) 146.8 (+16.2) 38%
Baseline Tuned ML TXST -2.6 (-2.4) 146.4 (+16.6) 37%
Baseline ML TXST -3.0 (-2.0) 148.8 (+14.2) 47%
Baseline Plus ML TXST -3.0 (-2.0) 145.1 (+17.9) 42%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 TXST 9584 ULM
Feb 20, 2025 TXST 8063 ULM
Feb 14, 2025 TXST 7260 ULM
Feb 28, 2024 TXST 7355 ULM
Jan 13, 2024 TXST 6754 ULM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ULM TXST
Overall 4-28 19-13
Conference 1-17 11-7
Home 3-10 16-1
Away 1-15 3-9
Neutral 0-3 0-3
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L8 L1
Avg Pts For 71.7 71.9
Avg Pts Against 85.4 72.5
Massey -14.2 (#344) -9.5 (#303)
Bradley-Terry -3.98 (#360) -0.78 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.47 (#359) -1.20 (#242)
RPI 0.343 (#360) 0.430 (#294)
Shooting & Four Factors ULM TXST
FG% 42.0% 44.2%
3PT% 34.7% 32.4%
REB / G 31.2 35.5
OREB / G 8.5 12.3
AST / TO 0.98 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.4% 48.3%
TOV% 18.5% 20.9%
ORB% 23.1% 36.0%
FT Rate 26.3% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.4% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 15.9% 19.3%
DRB% 65.4% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.5% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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