Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -250 ULM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -6.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -4.7 (+13.3) | 136.0 (-8.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.8 (+13.2) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.1 (+13.9) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -4.3 (+13.7) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TXST 67 – 54 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#237) | -7.3 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -0.92 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#220) | -1.11 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.462 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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