Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -2000 ULM +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -13.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -11.0 (+6.0) | 142.8 (+0.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -10.7 (+6.3) | 142.6 (+0.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -11.3 (+5.7) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -10.9 (+6.1) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TXST 67 – 54 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-11 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#199) | -12.9 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#225) | -2.29 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#230) | -2.80 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#211) | 0.380 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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