Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +320 TXST -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -7.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -6.6 (-5.4) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -6.5 (-5.5) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -6.5 (-5.5) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -6.7 (-5.3) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TXST 67 – 54 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-11 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#347) | -2.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#343) | -0.55 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#342) | -0.88 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#353) | 0.484 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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