Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +160 TXST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +13 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -3.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.2 (-9.8) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.9 (-9.1) | 129.5 (-8.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.6 (-9.4) | 130.1 (-9.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.5 (-9.5) | 131.0 (-10.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#331) | -3.5 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#340) | -0.94 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#334) | -0.83 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#338) | 0.479 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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