Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -1450 ULM +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -13.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -11.5 (-0.5) | 148.9 (+30.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -13.0 (-2.0) | 145.6 (+33.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -12.8 (-1.8) | 145.9 (+33.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -12.6 (-1.6) | 147.0 (+32.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TXST 67 – 54 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 16-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#263) | -16.4 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -3.44 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#217) | -4.19 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#233) | 0.369 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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