Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CIN +180 HOU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -5.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -4.0 (-3.0) | 132.4 (-5.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -2.9 (-4.1) | 135.8 (-8.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -3.9 (-3.1) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.4 (-3.6) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
| Mar 11, 2023 | HOU 69 – 48 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#77) | 17.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#125) | 3.43 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#110) | 5.06 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#159) | 0.613 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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