Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | HOU -550 CIN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +21 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -11.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -9.1 (+11.9) | 134.9 (-17.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -9.1 (+11.9) | 132.5 (-15.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -8.7 (+12.3) | 134.9 (-17.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -8.2 (+12.8) | 135.1 (-18.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 11-0 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#1) | 10.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#1) | 1.13 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.81 (#1) | 1.45 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#3) | 0.545 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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