Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -1350 CIN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.4 (+8.6) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.5 (+8.5) | 134.2 (-4.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.4 (+8.6) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.6 (+8.4) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
| Mar 11, 2023 | HOU 69 – 48 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#11) | 9.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#9) | 1.08 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.14 (#9) | 1.77 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#13) | 0.540 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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