Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -1400 CIN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.4 (-5.4) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.8 (-4.8) | 133.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.6 (-5.6) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.4 (-4.4) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
| Mar 11, 2023 | HOU 69 – 48 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 16-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#1) | 11.9 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#2) | 1.31 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#2) | 1.78 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#2) | 0.554 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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