Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1800 CIN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -15.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.6 (-3.6) | 129.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.4 (-4.4) | 129.5 (+7.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.8 (-3.8) | 129.8 (+7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.4 (-4.4) | 129.0 (+8.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
| Mar 11, 2023 | HOU 69 – 48 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 25.0 (#3) | 12.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#6) | 1.68 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#6) | 2.13 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#6) | 0.548 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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