Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | CMU +280 TOL -355 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -7.7 (+4.7) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -7.3 (+4.3) | 147.2 (+5.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.8 (+4.8) | 148.3 (+4.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -7.7 (+4.7) | 148.9 (+4.1) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | TOL 72 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-15 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#336) | 0.0 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#329) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#324) | 0.39 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#342) | 0.524 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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