Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CMU +850 TOL -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +34 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -11.8 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.0 (-22.0) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -11.1 (-22.9) | 149.9 (+14.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.8 (-20.2) | 151.4 (+12.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.6 (-22.4) | 153.5 (+10.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | TOL 72 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#323) | 6.3 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#316) | 1.21 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#321) | 1.29 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#326) | 0.566 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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