Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -215 CMU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -5.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.8 (-2.8) | 146.8 (-10.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.7 (-2.7) | 146.7 (-10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.1 (-4.1) | 149.0 (-13.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.5 (-3.5) | 148.6 (-12.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | TOL 72 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#204) | -3.8 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#137) | -0.76 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#172) | -0.85 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#124) | 0.507 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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