Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -19.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.4 (-15.4) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -17.1 (-16.1) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -17.5 (-16.5) | 146.7 (-3.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -17.4 (-16.4) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 2-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | -11.2 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#74) | -1.57 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#87) | -2.07 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#46) | 0.442 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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