Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -2000 CMU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +25 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -15.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.4 (+12.6) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -15.5 (+9.5) | 152.6 (-9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -14.1 (+10.9) | 156.0 (-13.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -13.2 (+11.8) | 154.7 (-11.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | TOL 72 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#105) | -8.0 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#104) | -1.74 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#113) | -2.15 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#104) | 0.401 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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