Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CMU +250 TOL -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.5 (+7.5) | 146.3 (-19.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.9 (+9.9) | 143.7 (-16.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.0 (+9.0) | 146.2 (-19.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.5 (+8.5) | 147.9 (-20.9) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | TOL 72 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#310) | 1.6 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#233) | 0.85 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#250) | 0.60 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.533 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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