Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SELA +160 SFA -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -8.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.8 (-3.2) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -8.3 (-1.7) | 133.3 (+2.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -9.1 (-0.9) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.0 (-2.0) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SFA 85 – 58 SELA |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SELA 66 – 59 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 6-16 | 20-2 |
| Home | 5-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-15 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#268) | 6.2 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#326) | 1.13 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#326) | 1.65 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#309) | 0.524 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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