Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -520 SELA +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +27 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.2 (+15.8) | 135.4 (+7.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -12.5 (+14.5) | 133.7 (+9.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -12.5 (+14.5) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -13.7 (+13.3) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SFA 73 – 63 SELA |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SELA 66 – 59 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 6-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 12-4 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#93) | -5.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#72) | -1.63 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#76) | -1.90 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#89) | 0.414 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.