Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -250 SELA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +7 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -1.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.1 (-9.1) | 128.5 (-3.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.6 (-7.6) | 126.8 (-1.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.3 (-7.3) | 128.7 (-3.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.7 (-7.7) | 129.3 (-4.3) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SFA 85 – 58 SELA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SFA 73 – 63 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#232) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#272) | -0.87 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#251) | -1.10 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#248) | 0.456 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 23.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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