Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -230 UK +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -5.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.1 (+7.9) | 164.3 (-1.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.4 (+9.6) | 165.9 (-2.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.5 (+8.5) | 165.3 (-2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.3 (+7.7) | 166.1 (-3.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALA 78 – 52 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#13) | 18.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#13) | 2.09 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.24 (#13) | 3.54 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#10) | 0.548 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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