Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 178.5 Over |
| Money | UK -140 ALA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 199 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -2.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -3.8 (-8.8) | 180.8 (+18.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.5 (-7.5) | 182.3 (+16.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.1 (-6.1) | 179.2 (+19.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -3.2 (-8.2) | 182.6 (+16.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALA 78 – 52 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#13) | 20.6 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#10) | 3.83 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#9) | 4.96 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#8) | 0.696 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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