Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -213 UK +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +26 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -10.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.2 (+16.8) | 158.6 (-28.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -7.7 (+18.3) | 155.4 (-25.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.3 (+17.7) | 153.8 (-23.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -8.7 (+17.3) | 157.2 (-27.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#6) | 10.4 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#4) | 1.82 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#6) | 2.21 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#2) | 0.574 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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