Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 178.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -400 UK +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +29 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -3.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.9 (+25.1) | 178.9 (-9.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.9 (+26.1) | 178.2 (-9.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.2 (+25.8) | 175.9 (-6.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.6 (+25.4) | 179.5 (-10.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALA 78 – 52 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#5) | 19.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#5) | 3.48 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#6) | 4.09 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#2) | 0.627 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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