Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Over |
| Money | UK -138 ALA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +22 | 212 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -3.3 (+25.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 183.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -0.1 (+21.9) | 175.6 (+36.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.1 (+21.9) | 188.4 (+23.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.6 (+21.4) | 180.0 (+32.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -0.1 (+22.1) | 182.7 (+29.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALA 78 – 52 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#21) | 20.9 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#41) | 2.61 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#29) | 3.27 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#55) | 0.636 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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