Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -455 USA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-53.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -6.4 (+3.6) | 148.7 (-40.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.0 (+3.0) | 151.9 (-43.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.2 (+3.8) | 149.6 (-41.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.3 (+2.7) | 150.3 (-42.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USA 74 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | -3.6 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#99) | 0.23 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#138) | 0.14 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.485 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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