Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USA +100 TROY +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -1.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.2 (+5.2) | 149.2 (-4.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.9 (+4.9) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.9 (+4.9) | 152.4 (-7.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.9 (+4.9) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#244) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#198) | 0.10 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#208) | 0.39 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#202) | 0.516 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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