Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | USA -170 TROY +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | USA -4.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.7 (-2.7) | 131.0 (-4.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.1 (-1.1) | 131.8 (-4.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.8 (-2.8) | 130.6 (-3.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.2 (-3.2) | 132.2 (-5.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USA 74 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#106) | 3.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#146) | 0.34 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#118) | 0.52 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#170) | 0.521 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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