Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -400 USA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -10.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -9.2 (-5.2) | 151.0 (+11.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -9.4 (-5.4) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.1 (-6.1) | 148.9 (+13.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -9.4 (-5.4) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USA 74 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#148) | -5.6 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#181) | -0.55 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#156) | -0.80 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#167) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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