Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -195 USA +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.0 (+8.0) | 132.0 (-12.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.1 (+6.9) | 134.1 (-14.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.1 (+7.9) | 131.6 (-11.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.6 (+7.4) | 133.0 (-13.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USA 74 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#111) | 3.8 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#144) | 0.53 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#134) | 0.85 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#133) | 0.510 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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