Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | USA +114 TROY -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +11 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -0.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.0 (+10.0) | 145.5 (-26.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -0.1 (+11.1) | 148.3 (-29.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.7 (+10.3) | 148.5 (-29.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.4 (+10.6) | 146.4 (-27.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USA 74 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#208) | 0.9 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#140) | 0.54 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#152) | 0.23 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#131) | 0.547 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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