Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | STAN +285 LOU -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -11.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -8.3 (+12.3) | 155.2 (+0.8) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.8 (+11.8) | 149.9 (+6.1) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -8.2 (+12.2) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.9 (+10.9) | 153.6 (+2.4) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | LOU 75 – 73 STAN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LOU 68 – 48 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#93) | 22.4 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#75) | 2.88 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#75) | 4.11 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#67) | 0.617 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.