Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -650 STAN +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -9.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -8.9 (-6.9) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -10.3 (-8.3) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -9.7 (-7.7) | 137.4 (+10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.6 (-7.6) | 137.9 (+10.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STAN 80 – 76 LOU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LOU 68 – 48 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#23) | 6.6 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#16) | 1.35 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#20) | 1.41 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#17) | 0.557 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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