Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -700 STAN +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +20 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -12.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.9 (+10.1) | 145.6 (-29.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -12.5 (+7.5) | 144.5 (-28.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -11.8 (+8.2) | 144.6 (-28.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -12.1 (+7.9) | 144.0 (-28.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STAN 80 – 76 LOU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | LOU 75 – 73 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#23) | 6.7 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#17) | 1.36 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#22) | 1.40 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#19) | 0.553 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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