In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
Conference USA · Murphy Center · January 3, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money MTSU -298 / LT +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual MTSU +37 139 Won
Massey MTSU -10.9 (+26.1)
Massey Totals 123.7 (+15.3)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML MTSU -7.5 (+29.5) 131.3 (+7.7) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -7.0 (+30.0) 127.8 (+11.2) 78%
Baseline ML MTSU -8.0 (+29.0) 128.3 (+10.7) 76%
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -6.8 (+30.2) 129.5 (+9.5) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 LT 8069 MTSU
Jan 15, 2026 LT 5958 MTSU
Mar 14, 2025 MTSU 7775 LT
Feb 21, 2025 LT 8574 MTSU
Jan 25, 2025 LT 7569 MTSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU LT
Overall 17-15 20-14
Conference 11-9 11-9
Home 11-4 14-3
Away 5-8 4-10
Neutral 1-3 2-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.5 67.8
Avg Pts Against 74.6 67.8
Massey 3.5 (#120) -3.5 (#219)
Bradley-Terry 0.80 (#110) -0.38 (#210)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.93 (#114) -0.98 (#234)
RPI 0.590 (#47) 0.462 (#244)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU LT
FG% 42.3% 41.5%
3PT% 32.0% 26.5%
REB / G 36.3 39.2
OREB / G 11.8 13.8
AST / TO 0.99 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 45.8%
TOV% 18.1% 18.1%
ORB% 31.5% 36.6%
FT Rate 19.2% 21.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 44.9%
Opp TOV% 13.9% 18.3%
DRB% 68.0% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 27.0% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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