Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -298 LT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +37 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -10.9 (+26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -6.8 (+30.2) | 129.5 (+9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -7.5 (+29.5) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.0 (+30.0) | 127.8 (+11.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -8.0 (+29.0) | 128.3 (+10.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LT 75 – 69 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#120) | -3.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#110) | -0.38 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#114) | -0.98 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#47) | 0.462 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.