Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -130 LT +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -1.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.5 (+1.5) | 140.5 (+11.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -0.3 (+2.3) | 139.3 (+12.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.2 (+1.8) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.1 (+1.9) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LT 75 – 69 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 2.3 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#83) | 0.69 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#102) | 0.88 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#54) | 0.539 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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