Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LT -140 MTSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | LT -1.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -0.6 (+5.4) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -2.0 (+4.0) | 142.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.3 (+4.7) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -1.1 (+4.9) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#124) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#108) | 1.37 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#104) | 1.35 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#82) | 0.589 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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