All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Conference USA · Thomas Assembly Center · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LT -2.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money LT -140 / MTSU +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total LT win
Actual LT +6 144 Won
Massey LT -1.3 (+4.7)
Massey Totals 144.4 (-0.4)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 56%
Efficiency Plus ML LT -2.0 (+4.0) 142.2 (+1.8) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML LT -1.3 (+4.7) 142.7 (+1.3) 58%
Baseline ML LT -1.1 (+4.9) 143.0 (+1.0) 53%
Baseline Plus ML LT -0.6 (+5.4) 143.2 (+0.8) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 LT 8069 MTSU
Jan 15, 2026 LT 5958 MTSU
Jan 3, 2026 MTSU 8851 LT
Mar 14, 2025 MTSU 7775 LT
Feb 21, 2025 LT 8574 MTSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LT MTSU
Overall 20-12 22-12
Conference 9-9 12-6
Home 11-4 11-5
Away 5-7 8-5
Neutral 4-1 3-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 71.5 75.2
Avg Pts Against 69.3 73.8
Massey 2.3 (#124) 4.4 (#100)
Bradley-Terry 0.73 (#108) 1.37 (#73)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.88 (#104) 1.35 (#89)
RPI 0.553 (#82) 0.589 (#45)
Shooting & Four Factors LT MTSU
FG% 46.5% 44.9%
3PT% 34.3% 32.6%
REB / G 35.9 37.8
OREB / G 9.8 11.6
AST / TO 1.17 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.8% 51.0%
TOV% 19.5% 16.9%
ORB% 31.0% 32.0%
FT Rate 24.7% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 16.8%
DRB% 69.5% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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