Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LT +114 MTSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -3.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.6 (+12.6) | 132.9 (+16.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -2.3 (+13.3) | 133.4 (+15.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.2 (+13.2) | 131.0 (+18.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -2.4 (+13.4) | 130.6 (+18.4) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LT 75 – 69 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | 1.0 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#187) | 0.03 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#205) | 0.04 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#200) | 0.540 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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